Retail theft is still a massive business problem. But the most repeated number in the debate has become a story of its own.
What looked like a straightforward surge in shoplifting is now a more complex mix of in-store theft, organized crime, fraud, and supply-chain attacks.
The $45 billion figure is real in one sense, but often misunderstood
The widely cited claim that retail theft hit roughly $45 billion has circulated through hearings, headlines, and industry briefings. Capital One Shopping recently estimated U.S. retailers lost about $44.2 billion to theft in 2024, putting the current discussion in that range. But that headline should not be confused with older claims that organized retail crime alone accounted for $45 billion a year. According to the National Retail Federation, that earlier organized-crime figure was incorrectly tied to its survey data and later retracted.
That distinction matters because “retail theft” is not one clean category. NRF’s long-running shrink surveys measure broad inventory loss, which can include external theft, employee theft, paperwork errors, vendor fraud, and other operational breakdowns. In its 2023 security survey, NRF said the average shrink rate for 2022 reached 1.6%, representing $112.1 billion in losses across the industry. Theft is a large part of that picture, but not the whole thing.
The result is a public argument shaped by overlapping numbers. Critics have pointed to the 2023 retraction as evidence that retail theft was overstated. Retailers, meanwhile, argue that even when one claim was corrected, the broader problem of theft and fraud never disappeared. Both points can be true at once.
The crime itself is evolving faster than many shoppers realize
Retail crime is no longer centered only on people stuffing merchandise into bags and running out the door. The FBI describes organized retail theft as large-scale stealing for resale, often crossing state lines and feeding broader criminal enterprises. NRF’s recent research says organized groups are increasingly using gift card fraud, phone scams, cargo theft, and supply-chain diversion alongside traditional store theft.
That shift helps explain why some retail executives say conditions feel worse even when shoplifting patterns begin to stabilize in certain places. NRF’s 2025 study found retailers saw an 18% increase in the average number of shoplifting incidents in 2024 versus 2023, along with a 17% rise in threats or acts of violence during theft events. Yet the group’s newer 2026 report also found average shoplifting incidents and merchandise theft incidents declined between 2024 and 2025, suggesting some store-level pressure may be easing.
What is not easing is the sophistication. Fraud taxonomies being developed by NRF and industry partners increasingly treat theft as part of a wider ecosystem that includes account takeover, return abuse, card fraud, and resale networks. In other words, the crime is moving from the aisle to the algorithm.
Retailers are changing their defenses, and policy is following
Retailers have responded with a mix of harder security and smarter analytics. Chains have added locked cases, receipt checks, product trackers, AI-assisted video review, and more targeted staffing around high-risk departments. According to NRF, some of the recent stabilization in store theft reflects years of investment in employee training and security technology rather than a clean resolution of the problem.
The downside is visible to shoppers. Everyday items such as toothpaste, baby formula, razors, and over-the-counter medicine are now more likely to sit behind barriers, especially in theft-prone urban stores. The FBI warns that organized retail theft can contribute to store closures, job losses, and even food or pharmacy deserts when merchants conclude a location is no longer viable.
Lawmakers are responding as well. NRF and law-enforcement advocates are backing the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act of 2025, which would create a stronger federal coordination structure for cases that stretch across jurisdictions and through online resale markets. The next phase of this fight will not be defined by one dramatic number. It will be defined by whether retailers and police can keep pace with a crime problem that is becoming less visible, more networked, and harder to measure.