Turkey prices are running higher than they were ahead of Thanksgiving last year, but the holiday bird itself does not appear to be in short supply. Early November grocery averages and USDA market reports point to a season with more birds available, even as shelf prices stay elevated.
Why prices are up even with more birds available
In early November, the national average grocery price for a whole, conventionally raised frozen turkey was about $1.26 per pound, up from $1.03 at the same point last year, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension economist David Anderson, whose figures were cited by Farm Progress and other outlets reporting on the holiday market. That means shoppers may still pay more at the meat case even though supply has improved from last year’s decline.
Part of the answer is timing. Turkey pricing for Thanksgiving does not move only with the latest weekly wholesale market. Anderson said retail turkey prices often reflect store promotions and earlier contracted prices, not just current spot costs. Farm Progress also reported that whole turkeys on the wholesale market averaged $1.80 per pound in late October, compared with $1.69 a year earlier.
USDA’s Economic Research Service has also been signaling firmer turkey prices this year. In its October 2026 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, the agency said frozen whole hen turkey prices were expected to remain strong through the rest of 2026 and into 2027. For home cooks, that adds up to a familiar Thanksgiving reality: a bird may cost more than it did last November, even when the broader supply picture looks healthier.
What the bigger supply means for Thanksgiving shopping
The key shift this season is production. After a drop of more than 8% last year, producers have bounced back, according to reporting from Farm Progress based on Anderson’s market outlook. The number of birds going to market is up about 3%, and total production is up nearly 6% because birds are heavier on average.
USDA data supports the broader recovery trend. The agency’s turkey sector statistics show turkey meat production in the first half of 2026 reached 2.50 billion pounds, up 7.4% from the same period in 2025. That does not mean every store will stock the same sizes or brands, but it does suggest that shoppers should generally find more available product heading into the holiday than they did a year ago.
That distinction matters because a higher turkey price can sound like a shortage story when it is not. This year’s market is better described as more expensive, but better supplied. For anyone planning a Thanksgiving menu, that likely means less worry about simply finding a bird, especially if flexibility on brand, weight, or frozen versus fresh is part of the plan.
Bird flu is still a risk, and stores are using promotions
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza remains a concern for the turkey business, especially during fall migration, when outbreaks can pick up. Even so, extension analysts quoted by Farm Progress and Alabama Cooperative Extension said recent bird flu cases have not been significant enough to disrupt Thanksgiving availability in a major way this year.
USDA’s National Retail Report shows that whole birds are being featured more prominently in store ads as the holiday approaches. In the report covering promotions running from October 31 through November 12, USDA said frozen conventional whole turkey feature prices were 26 cents per pound higher than a year earlier. At the same time, more retailers were promoting whole birds, which is a sign grocers are still leaning on turkey as a traffic driver.
That could matter as much as the national average price. Supermarkets often use Thanksgiving staples to bring shoppers through the door, then make the basket work with higher margin items elsewhere in the meal. So even with average turkey prices up, individual deals may still show up in weekly circulars and digital offers, especially in the final stretch before Thanksgiving.
